Post-Budget Middle-Class Meltdown: What It Bodes for BJP

The presentation of Budget 2024 has caused unprecedented heartburn among India’s middle class, a crucial voter base for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Outrage among them will have far-reaching repercussions on the political scene when viewed against the backdrop of the fact that the middle class constitutes about 31% of India’s population.

Middle-Class Discontent

Frustrated and ignored, the middle class—who substantially supported the BJP in the past few years—came out on the streets and on social media to protest against the budget announcement. Though being the backbone of India’s taxpayer base, the middle class has been granted very little by way of relief over the last ten years, as it bore the heavy load of taxes on income as well as expenditure. The recent budget, thus, with no major concessions to this group, has further added to their frustration.

A vocal section of the population expressed dissatisfaction on social media. Some of the comments ranged from accusations of the government being out of touch with the common people to demands for a finance minister who understands the middle-class struggle. The sentiment was best captured by one YouTuber who posted, “Taxes like America, services like Somalia,” an extreme case of comparing the taxes paid and the benefits derived.

Taxation and Economic Policies

The tax burden is directly on the middle class, since most of the taxpayers are individuals. Having reduced the corporate tax rate with expectations to spur investment and jobs, it hasn’t as planned, leaving the middle-class citizens overburdened hence underappreciated. Moreover, this frustration has been further fueled by the increase in LTCG tax from 10% to 12.5% and removal of indexation benefits. These are viewed as obstacles to the financial goals of the middle class, most of whom augment their incomes through stock market investments and real estate.

The Political Fallout

As one of its huge voter bases, the middle class contributed immensely to all successes in elections won by the BJP in 2014 and 2019. Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari explained that the middle class was aspirational, not ideologically glued to any party, but was tilted towards the BJP because of its business-friendly and urban-centric policies. This recent budget, however, did a tightrope on this relationship.

A post-poll survey conducted shows that the BJP has lost 3% of the middle-class votes in Lok Sabha elections this year. And Congress has gained 2% of these votes. This aided the BJP in its loss of a majority by itself, down from 303 in 2019 to 240 in 2024. It had an uncanny resemblance to what had happened during the defeat of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2004, in which a similar shift of the middle-class vote played a very important role.

How Far Ahead Lies the Future for BJP?

The biggest challenge facing the BJP — a 11% slice of its vote share — is the disillusionment of the middle class, an important segment to win elections. In order to regain their confidence, the BJP has to assuage their grievances with policies that give tangible benefits and relief measures. This includes reconsideration in tax policies and that the economic burden is more equally shared.

Additionally, its aspirational nature and contributions to nation-building through taxes set a series of policies aimed at empowering and supporting the middle class. The BJP needs to demonstrate a deep appreciation of the middle class struggles and aspirations if it is to rebuild trust and maintain electoral advantage.

The post-budget middle-class meltdown is actually a wake-up call for the BJP. Being one of the most important segments of voters and one that can make a huge difference in the outcome of elections, the concerns of this section have to be taken seriously. How the party manages this discontent and comes up with credible solutions will decide its political destiny in the future. The middle class has spoken, and it is now for the BJP to listen and act.